Researchers at IHE Delft examine potential impact of conflict on the Jebel Aulia Dam in Sudan

From May to September of this year, researchers at the Institute for Water Education (IHE Delft), funded by the Water and Development Partnership Programme, carried out research on the Jebel Aulia Dam (JAD), situated near Sudan’s capital Khartoum. In the recently published report, researchers draw the attention to the threat of collapse of the dam, also examining the potential impact of the ongoing conflict on the operation of the dam and drawing attention to the potential  flood risks of the current situation.

According to Article 54 of the additional protocol to the Geneva Conventions, it is prohibited to attack infrastructure indispensable to the civilian population, with specific reference to water and food. Nevertheless, water infrastructure often is targeted in war. In a recent news update, IHE Delft has shared the results of research into the safety of the Jebel Aulia Dam (JAD) in Sudan, drawing a comparison to the Mosul Dam in Iraq, the two dams near the city of Derna in Libya, and Ukraine’s Karhovka Dam.  The researchers call for international monitoring of the risks of dam failure in war zones and rapid intervention where necessary. 

In their report, published on November 14, IHE Delft’s researchers explore the compounded impacts of climate change and socio-political instability on dam failures in conflict zones. Sudan is one such region , and it is facing heightened flood risks due to the convergence of conflict and climate variability. The JAD is an important dam in Sudan built on the White Nile near Khartoum in the 1930’s which has been significantly affected by ongoing military conflicts since April 2023. The dam has become a focal point of the conflict due to its strategic location linking Khartoum to Omdurman and its proximity to key military bases. The dam still serves to control water levels so as to enable abstraction for irrigation abstraction for the White Nile projects, as well as to control floods. In addition, the dam was fitted with 80 turbine generator units for hydroelectricity generation with a total capacity of 30 MW. Moreover, the dam plays a role in the fishing and tourism industry. With its operators abandoning the dam during attacks, the water release mechanisms have remained fixed, raising concerns about flood risks both upstream and downstream. 
The researchers use the example of the collapse of Sudan’s Arbaat dam in August 2024 in the eastern part of Sudan, to underscore the heightened vulnerability of critical infrastructure during wartime, especially in regions already strained by socio-political instability and climate change. The failure of the Arbaat dam led to a severe water shortage in Port Sudan, one of the country’s largest cities, which depends on the dam for its water supply, as well as numerous fatalities and missing persons. On top of that Port Sudan is home to internally displaced persons fleeing the violence. In the current situation, with dam operators forced to abandon their posts due to the conflicts, the dam’s water release mechanisms are assumed to remain fixed at their last operational settings. Without appropriate adjustments to the gate settings at JAD, there is the risk of flooding, and in an extreme case, of dam collapse. 
The study employs water balance modelling and scenario analysis to simulate the potential impacts of fixed gate settings on reservoir levels and downstream flooding. Being the main core of the study, a water balance equation is used to estimate the JAD releases and the reservoir water level changes for a fixed gate setting for the years 2024 and 2025. Historical data from 1983 to 2020 and recent altimetry information were used to validate the model. Various inflow scenarios, including extreme weather events, were analysed to predict flood risks, emphasizing the vulnerability of this critical infrastructure during wartime. For the research, broad consultation with the JAD operators, engineers, and experts was carried out, ensuring the correct implementation of the model and its components.
The results of this study underscore the significant risks posed by fixed dam gate settings under varying inflow and downstream conditions. The researchers find that it is important to recognize that this analysis, based on 10-day averaged data, may smooth out extreme daily variations. Actual conditions during peak inflows may present even more severe risks than modelled here. 
The report concludes by highlighting the need for enhanced disaster preparedness strategies and adaptive management of dam operations in conflict-prone regions. The researchers warn for the complex relationship between the JAD and the Blue Nile dams, particularly the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Sennar Dam. Changes in release patterns from these dams directly affect downstream water levels at the JAD, complicating 37 flood management efforts. The backflow effect from the Blue Nile River places additional strain on the JAD, especially during periods of high discharge from these dams. 
The findings of this study provide crucial insights for policymakers and contribute to the broader understanding of the interplay between climate change, conflict, and water security.