Pacific Institute Update: 2023 was a record year for violence over water resources across the globe

Research into water conflicts conducted by the Pacific Institute in Oakland, California, U.S.A. has demonstrated a sharp rise in conflicts during 2023 in comparison with 2022, continuing a steep growth trend of such incidents over the past decade. These events include attacks on water systems, unrest and disputes over the control of and access to water, and the use of water as a weapon of war. The updated data and analysis were released in advance of the world’s largest international conference on water, Stockholm’s World Water Week, where the 2024 theme is “Bridging Borders: Water for a Peaceful and Sustainable Future.”

The number of water conflicts during 2023 increased by 50% relative to 2022, with 347 incidents reported in 2023 against 231 in 2022. The number of conflicts in 2022, in turn, was 89% higher than in 2021 (231 against 122). By contrast, in the year 2000, there were only 22 such incidents recorded. The new data on the number of global water conflicts over 2023 was released on the  22nd of August 2024 by the Pacific Institute, a global water think tank, as an update to its Water Conflict Chronology, the world’s most comprehensive open-source database on water-related violence which was initiated in the 1980’s.

In the latest update, more than 300 new instances of violent conflicts associated with water resources and water systems have been added to the record. Incidents are identified from news reports, eyewitness accounts, and other conflict databases. One example is the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) database which collects and documents tens of thousands of violent conflicts around the world. According to Dr. Peter Gleick, Senior Fellow and co-founder of the Pacific Institute and Morgan Shimabuku, Senior Researcher at the Pacific Institute, the reports by humanitarian organisations are an important source of information, as are cross language media surveys. All these incidents are captured and documented in the water conflict chronology database, and the new entries capture all water-related incidents of violence through the end of 2023.

The database covers water conflicts over a period of 4500 years, but the analysis presented by the Pacific Institute only goes back to the year 2000. Speaking to The Water Diplomat, Dr Gleick stated “we feel that only in the past few decades have the sources of information been relatively consistent and we have more faith that the trends we are seeing are legitimate trends”.  Each entry into the database is categorized into three groups: water as a trigger of violence, water as a casualty of violence, and water as a weapon. The first of these is what most people tend to associate with ‘water conflicts ‘: it is where there is a dispute over control or access to water resources, where drought is leading conflicts between farmers and pastoralists, etc. In the second and third cases, the conflict is not about water per se, but more about economics, borders or ideology. In the second case, water as a casualty of violence occurs where there is a targeting of strategic resources, including energy or water distribution systems, during conflicts that may start for other reasons.  In the third case, water is used as a ‘weapon’ by destroying important water infrastructure on which the enemy depends: blowing up a dam, a water treatment facility, or filling a well with concrete.

The 2023 data from the water conflict chronology show that water was a trigger for conflict in 39% of the cases, while it was a casualty of conflict in 50% of the incidents, and it was used directly as a weapon in a conflict in 11% of the reported incidents. What is also notable is that the number of subnational conflicts is much larger than the number of interstate conflicts: 62% of conflicts took place within national borders as against 38% between states.

In the analysis of the Institute, the significant upswing in violence over water resources reflects continuing disputes over control and access to scarce water resources, the importance of water for modern society, and growing pressures on water due to population growth and extreme climate change. In the words of Dr Gleick: “The population of the planet is 8 billion and 1000 years ago it was much smaller. The pressure on water resources is much greater, and I believe that these trends are real trends, and they reflect the growing pressure on water resources and growing water scarcity.

The data from the water conflict chronology database is used regularly for academic purposes, but also for diplomatic purposes: the Institute has provided briefings for the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. Congress as well as the security community – to help them understand the connections between water and violence and the roles that diplomatic resources may play in reducing those risks.

“The large increase in these events signals that too little is being done to ensure equitable access to safe and sufficient water and highlights the devastation that war and violence wreak on civilian populations and essential water infrastructure,” said Morgan Shimabuku, Senior Researcher with the Pacific Institute. “The newly updated data and analysis exposes the increasing risk that climate change adds to already fragile political situations by making access to clean water less reliable in areas of conflict around the world.”

Policy and Practice Solutions Available

In addition to collecting and sharing data on water conflicts, the Pacific Institute’s work is focused on identifying and understanding strategies to reduce the risks of water-related violence. The rise in water-related conflict has diverse drivers and causes and therefore requires diverse approaches and strategies that build water resilience and address underlying causes. In places where drought and climate change are contributing to tensions over water, policies can be enacted to more equitably distribute and share water among stakeholders and technology can help to more efficiently use what water is available. Agreements over water sharing and joint management of water can be negotiated to resolve transboundary conflicts, such as those along the Tigris/Euphrates rivers, the Helmand River, and elsewhere. When enforced, international laws of war that protect civilian infrastructure like dams, pipelines, and water-treatment plants can provide essential protections that uphold the basic human right to water. Improving cybersecurity practices can reduce the threat of cyber-attacks that try to weaponize access to water for communities.

“It is urgent that we work to reduce the threat of water-related violence. The best ways to do this are to move to more resilient and effective water policies that guarantee safe water and sanitation for everyone, strengthen and enforce international agreements and laws over shared water resources, and address the growing threats posed by extreme droughts and floods worsened by climate change,” said Gleick. “Solutions are available, but to date they have been insufficiently applied.”

Background: The Water Conflict Chronology

The World’s Largest Open-Source Database on Water-Related Violence

The Water Conflict Chronology is the world’s most comprehensive open-source database on water-related violence. Created by the Pacific Institute in the 1980s, it includes verified

instances where water and water systems have been a (1) trigger; (2) target or casualty; or (3) weapon of violence. The data extend back over 4,500 years. Each entry in the Water Conflict Chronology is identified with the date, location, category (trigger, casualty, or weapon), a short description, and a verifying citation or source. The Chronology now includes over 1,920 cases of violence associated with water resources and systems and shows a clear worsening of water-related violence in recent decades.

For more information, contact Dr. Peter Gleick, co-founder and Senior Fellow of the Pacific Institute at pgleick@pacinst.org or Dr. Amanda Bielawski, Director of Communications and Outreach, at abielawski@pacinst.org.