At the time of writing, the global climate conference — COP27 — is only a month away. Is water on the global climate agenda?

I have been working on water and climate policy issues since COP15 in 2009, and our organisation has worked directly with the UNFCCC and many national governments on national and global climate policy since about 2015. I am proud to have co-chaired with a Moroccan colleague from the OECD the first “water day” in Marrakesh at COP 22 in 2016. We have worked with several COP hosts since then, most recently the UK (in Glasgow, COP 26) and currently with Egypt in anticipation of the meeting in Sharm al-Sheik this year. I have a long-term view of the COP process from a water perspective.

In my opinion, the climate community realizes they have a water problem, but large parts of the water community still haven’t realized they have a climate problem.

Last year, 193 countries submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The name sounds bureaucratic and technical, but these climate plans represent the early stages of a rethink of economic development. NDCs are meant to integrate efforts both to slow down climate change (reducing and storing greenhouse emissions, or climate mitigation) and policies and projects that will help our economies, communities, and ecosystems cope with climate impacts (climate adaptation and resilience). They are five-year plans, intended to  become more ambitious and sweeping in scope in each iteration. We’re still in the first half of the first generation of NDCs.

What we are hearing from negotiators is that water runs throughout their NDCs — from irrigation projects to the water embedded in their clean energy production. They have been reaching out for help in integrating water and then ensuring that they can  deliver on the promises they are making. What we are also hearing is that these negotiators are very concerned about a special climate term, i.e. ‘transformation’. At a UNFCCC meeting in Bonn last June, I heard many countries — the Maldives, Zambia, the USA — all refer to transformation as the critical issue they were most worried about.

Transformation means that as climate impacts accumulate, we pass climatic and ecological tipping points, and major changes occur quite suddenly. Perhaps the most obvious ones are the loss of glaciers in the Andes and the Himalayas, or the defrosting of Greenland, Siberia, and northern Canada. When a frozen place becomes a grassland — or even a forest — that’s transformation. I like to think of it as a place you think you know well becoming unfamiliar. National climate negotiators are looking into the climate science and seeing that every country is going through at least the early stages of transformation now. The most important of these changes comes through the water cycle — shifts in precipitation patterns, changes in water availability, disconnecting sectors and communities (or forcing them to compete with each other or with ecosystems for water).

A few politicians are addressing this issue directly. California Governor Gavin Newsom talks about the need for reframing water and climate as a scarcity issue to an “abundance” issue, so that his citizens (and voters and investors) have hope and faith in the future of his highly water-stressed region. Those are powerful messages for COP.

Despite this change in the climate community, I often hear different stories from water professionals.  Often, I hear that programmes that have been in place for decades like water efficiency efforts are already providing climate resilience benefits. Almost invariably, these statements are untested and unverified, and I feel skeptical about such  claims. I also hear that we need more “data” to de-risk water projects. De-risking is a finance term, which in practice means to make small adjustments to a project to avoid a threat.

The gap between “transformation” and “de-risking” is wider than the Red Sea, where COP27 will occur. To me, the climate negotiators have it right: focus on the big problems, which will largely require big water resilience solutions. What I see on the water side are mostly small responses, and no one is really talking about transformation there yet.

My hope for COP27? That the water community listens to the insights of climate negotiators, and steps up as a full partner in provisioning those solutions.

GHD, a global professional (engineering and architecture) services company specialising in water, energy and urbanisation, has released a study in September claiming that, by 2050, droughts, floods and storms can have a negative impact on 8 key countries’ GDP of up to US$ 5.6 trillion. Noting the rise in global economic losses from extreme weather from US $ 117,8 billion in 2020 to US $ 224 billion in 2021, GHD conducted water risk analysis across seven countries to estimate future losses in these countries by 2050. The study, entitled “Aquanomics: The economics of water risk and future resilience”, found that the manufacturing and distribution sector would be the worst affected, with projected losses of US$ 5.2 trillion. 

The researchers first estimated direct losses based on data from the insurance sector. Secondly, a literature review was conducted on the sectoral economic impacts from extreme weather on different sectors in the selected countries such as agriculture, banking and insurance, energy and utilities and manufacturing and distribution. Finally, this data was inserted into an economic model to predict the broader impact of these losses to the economy. The impact assessment focused on the United States, China, Australia, UK, Philippines, Canada and the United Arab Emirates. In the U.S. alone, the report estimates, losses could be in the region of US$ 3.7 trillion and in China, despite the country’s heavy investment in water infrastructure, they could be as much as US$ 1.1 trillion. 

While China’s investments may be preparing the country to minimise the loss of lives, more could be done to build resilience in the economy, with measures such as generalising the use of recycled water in the industry, the study finds.

In the UK, for instance, its long coastline and ageing infrastructure makes the country more vulnerable to the impacts of water-related phenomena and the rehabilitation and replacement of water infrastructure could help minimise negative impacts.

Despite the diversity of situations countries are in, which would require bespoke measures for each, the report points out three main areas of intervention to help mitigate these effects. The first key aspect is “adaptation”, companies’ ability to adjust to an uncertain future by making short- and medium-term investments and adjusting their structures to better deal with change. The second is “optimisation”: putting technology and data-driven insights at the service of improving resilience and performance. Lastly, through the notion of “prioritisation of regeneration”, GHD advises companies to adopt nature-based solutions, recycling and transitioning to a circular economy.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has released a statement warning that, by 2030, as many as 700 million Africans will be displaced due to water scarcity issues. By then, only 1 in 5 countries will have sustainably managed water sources. With changing precipitation patterns and shrinking water reserves such as lakes and glaciers, combined with a growing need for water, WMO says that there is also a growing risk of water-related conflict.

WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas said: ““The worsening crisis and looming famine in the drought-stricken Horn of Africa shows how climate change can exacerbate water shocks, threatening the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and destabilising communities, countries and entire regions.”

Taalas also added that, even though the continent contributes less than 5% of the world’s greenhouse gases, “Africa’s climate has warmed more than the global average since pre-industrial times (1850-1900). In parallel, the sea level rise along African coastlines is faster than the global mean, contributing to increases in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding and erosion, and salinity in low-lying cities. Changes in continental water bodies have major impacts on the agriculture sector, ecosystems, biodiversity.”

The WMO’s State of the Climate in Africa report, released in 2021, stressed that water-related events such as droughts, floods and rising sea levels seriously compromise the continent’s ability to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The WMO also warns that further investment is needed in adaptation to the changing climate. Moreover, the UN’s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water stressed the need to strengthen early warning systems, increase transboundary cooperation, data exchange and knowledge sharing.

On the evening of the 14th of September, eight Russian cruise missiles struck the Karachun dam on the Inhulets River in Ukraine, releasing a flood surge that reached almost three metres in height. The surge of water flooded parts of the town of Kryvyi Rih, which had a population of 650 000 before the war, sweeping away bridges and damaging homes.  More than 100 homes were submerged, and some 5000 people were left without water supplies. At the time of the strike, the dam was located 50 km from the Russian-Ukrainian front and cannot therefore be classified as 'collateral damage' from the conflict. On the contrary, the fact that cruise missiles with a high level of accuracy were used in this attack appears to indicate that attacking the dam was intentional. In an assessment  provided by the Institute for the Study of War on September 14th, Russian forces likely targeted hydraulic infrastructure to interfere with Ukrainian operations across the Inhulets River. Ukrainian troops had laid pontoon bridges across the Inhulets River further downstream as part of their Kherson counteroffensive.       

Despite heavy damage to the Karachun dam, flood damage was swiftly reduced and the water supply in the city had been restored two days later.  The city administration worked throughout the night on the 15th of September to lower the water level flooding the city, blowing up the dam in two further places to reduce the excess flow 13 centimetres. In a video reaction released two days later, president Zelenski condemned the attack, stating that the targeted infrastructure has ‘no military value at all, in fact hitting hundreds of thousands of ordinary civilians’.         

About thirty kilometres northwest of Lomé, the Togolese capital, stretching to the horizon in every direction, one can witness the majestic rice-growing basins of the municipality of Zio 2. Many visitors make a stopover to contemplate the beauty of the rice fields and to catch that particular smell. However, not many visitors are aware of the water problems that undermine the sector, with risks of physical conflicts and sometimes even the threat of machetes. This area produces rice in large quantities for the country: just over 800 hectares are sown, producing around 2,300 tons per year. And rice production requires control over water. "In our activity as rice farmers, access to water is our most important challenge", says Bernadette Akoli, a local rice producer.

“During the short rainy season and the dry season, we suffer from lack of water to irrigate the rice fields. We are sometimes forced to use motor pumps to draw water from the basin,” continues Bernadette. Southern Togo, where Zio 2 is located, has two rainy seasons (a short and a long one) as well as two dry seasons (also short and long). However, these seasons are both irregular and changing. In some years there is only one rainy season, with limited rain. It is therefore not surprising that there are problems of access to water.

To deal with these challenges, the Perimeter Management Committee (CGP) has established a schedule for the irrigation of the fields. However, sometimes, producers do not respect this schedule, using water on days when they are not scheduled, and sometimes illicitly diverting the flow of water to their farms. This leads to conflicts, and even… punches and machetes.

“If we notice that you are irrigating your field on a day when you were not scheduled to do so, we can turn off your motor pump. We have witnessed extremes, in particular threats with knives or machetes, as well as real injuries” laments Ms. Akoli. The PMC is trying to keep the situation under control, especially to avoid conflict that could cause loss of life. “We have a sub-committee that manages water. If there is a problem somewhere, this is the organisation that intervenes”, reveals Aoudou Aminou, Secretary General of the CGP.

Dilapidated canals and clogged dam

“The dam from which the pipeline originated was planned for an area of ​​approximately 600 hectares. Currently with the Partam project (project for the development and rehabilitation of agricultural land in the Mission Tové area), this will go beyond 1000 hectares. Under these conditions, water-related problems cannot be avoided. Thus, water becomes scarce at certain times of the year, especially during the dry season,” notes Koudjagbo Kodjo Apélété, rice producer and municipal councilor in the municipality of Zio 2.

“The infrastructure is deteriorating. At times you will see irrigation channels collapsing. This results in intense bursts of water. If you walk along the perimeter, you will notice that in some places the channels are deformed and the water escapes. This constitutes losses for the perimeter. By the way, the perimeter dates back a very long time. It was built around 1975 by the Chinese,” adds the representative of rice producers on the City Council. The CGP introduced a fee for the use of water from the irrigation scheme which amounts to 15,000 FCFA /ha/yr, which is due to increase to 30,000 FCFA. The funds are used by CGP to repair the parts of the scheme that are experiencing deterioration, but the funds are insufficient.

We recommend dredging the dam to increase its retention capacity. Consideration should also be given to setting up a water policy to ensure the rational use of the resource. Following the instructions given regarding the use of water will help solve this problem. We can also lengthen certain old pipes to reach the most remote places”, advocates the municipal councilor.

Placing water in the service of peace and not peace at the service of water

Water diplomacy can be used in situations such as those in Zio 2. But what to do when there are obstacles to water diplomacy? “The hindrance to water diplomacy manifests itself when there are misunderstandings around the use of the resource. Water diplomacy is defined as all the mechanisms, means implemented to prevent conflicts, tensions which have the direct or indirect cause of water sharing. When the sharing is not equitable, when the water is not used wisely by all users, when a single entity monopolizes the resource, when there is no dialogue between the different actors, we are witnessing obstacles to water diplomacy,” says Flamay Ahiafor, a local water management expert.

At municipal level, rice production is not the only water demand sector and there are conflicts of access between various uses, whereby each user will want to satisfy their needs first. There are also tensions between nomadic and local herders who pass through the fields and the farmers.

“The solution is to move towards Integrated Water Resources Management. This means that all the actors must unite around the resource. Water must be managed simultaneously with all other resources including land. These are resources that are intrinsically linked through the water cycle. So we have to go to this ecosystem management which makes it possible to redefine the resources at our disposal. To achieve this, it is necessary to make a diagnosis of the resource, to know the quantity that we have and the use that we want to make of it, in consultation with all the actors”, advises the specialist.

“Whatever the source of water, there will always be conflicts. What must be done is to put water at the service of peace, and not peace at the service of water", recommends Dr. Boubacar Barry, scientific advisor to the 9th World Water Forum held in Dakar (Senegal) in March 2022. In other words, it is the desire to manage the resource for the benefit of all that must generate peace, and not the contrary.

The battle against climate change is another dimension in the struggle for water

As is the case with other communities around the world, in Africa and in Togo, the municipality of Zio 2 also suffers from the impacts of climate change, in particular the scarcity of rain and therefore of water resources. “The scarcity of rain is explained by climate change. The anarchic cutting of the trees bordering the Zio River affects rainfall. Indeed, the pipeline draws its source from there”, recognizes Mr. Koudjagbo. Provisions are made to raise public awareness of the need to preserve the forest cover. Apart from this, efforts are being made to increase the forest cover through reforestation campaigns. It is by preserving natural resources that we can envisage real integrated management of water resources.

On the 12th of September, the United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Syria expressed serious concern over the ongoing cholera outbreak in Syria. On the 10th of September, the Syrian Ministry of Health declared an outbreak of cholera in Aleppo governorate following 15 confirmed cases and one death. By the 26th of September, the number of confirmed cases had risen to 338 and the number of deaths from the disease had risen to 29. According to an update from the International Rescue Committee (IRC) on the 21st of September, the number of suspected – but not laboratory confirmed  - cases  were 2, 092.  The IRC noted that cholera can spread rapidly in the Syrian context, where there are more than 7 million internally displaced people, access to drinking water has declined by 40% relative to the period before the conflict, and there are suspicions that the Euphrates River may be contaminated.

A rapid assessment conducted by health authorities in partnership with international partners led to the understanding that that the outbreak may be linked to the drinking of unsafe water directly from the Euphrates River, and the use of contaminated water to irrigate crops. The outbreak of Cholera is seen by the UN as an indicator of increasing shortages of water: the Euphrates River Basin (ERB) is experiencing exceptional drought conditions, and in combination with the destruction of national water infrastructure, large sections of the population are forced to rely on unsafe sources of drinking water.

Under the leadership of the Ministry of Health and in partnership with UNICEF, the WHO and many local partners, work is underway to strengthen preparedness and response capacity in all governorates. The responses include the distribution of rapid diagnostic tests, intravenous fluids and oral rehydration salts, the upscaling of chlorination activities, and the trucking of clean water to needy communities.

The ERB has experienced exceptional drought conditions since January, with water levels at historic low point.                     

Recent research has shown that the megadrought currently being experienced in the American south-west is the driest period that the Colorado River Basin (CRB) has experienced in 1200 years. Since the year 2000, south-western North America has been exceptionally dry due to low rainfall and high temperatures, and soil moisture levels in summertime were below average for 18 of the past 22 years. In the summer of 2021, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest reservoirs in the United States, reached their lowest levels on record, triggering drought contingency plans which involved the lower basin states agreeing to restrictions in water use. However, by the 15th of August, the basin states passed a federal deadline - announced in June - to collectively agree on joint reductions in water demand, triggering Federal intervention. However, the federal government has extended the deadline for states to reach an agreement on water demand reductions. The Department of the Interior announced that it will continue to seek consensus, organising a symposium for stakeholders and ‘listening sessions’ planned for the end of September.

In terms of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act , a host of funding measures are available to improve the climate resilience of agriculture, and U.S. $ 4 billion has been reserved specifically to address the drought in the west. The drought in the west has led to multiple legislative hearings being held in the House and the Senate. However, most of the interventions focus on technical solutions for water demand management rather than addressing underlying issues with the water law itself. In an article published on the 15th of September, researchers Abigail Brown and Nicole Hardesty comment that “water law in the intermountain west was not developed to confront the unstable environment that climate change creates”. The existing water law in the American west is based on the prior appropriation doctrine, which holds that the first claimant to beneficially use water - historically usually for mining or agricultural purposes – had an absolute right of priority use above other users. This historical development has created issues for a rapidly growing and diversifying economy, as a result of which rapidly growing urban areas and industrial zones in effect have inferior water rights. The system does not cater for leaving water in the stream and in fact leads to over-appropriation. Furthermore, the prior appropriation doctrine is based on the idea of a predictable water supply, which is currently being undermined by climate change. Brown and Hardesty argue that with climate change the intensity and unpredictability of droughts in the west cannot be reasonably projected, and therefore state water agencies need the flexibility to reallocate water priorities in times of shortage.

The authors argue that western water law will need to adapt to the realities of climate change. One option is to create ‘water banks’ based on a voluntary system in which existing rights holders can transfer their water rights temporarily or permanently to other users on a limited ‘water market’. Another option is to institute involuntary emergency allocation systems whereby private water rights must yield to public emergencies or necessity.                             

On September 4th, Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan’s Minister for Federal Planning made an appeal for an “immense humanitarian response for 33 million people” following the widespread and unprecedented flooding that the country experienced over the past months. Rainfall during July and August was 190% above the thirty-year average and during August, and rainfall in Balochistan and Sindh provinces was 590% and 726% above average respectively. As a result, in early September, one third of the entire country was flooded, affecting 15% of Pakistan’s population. According to Relief Web, as of the 14th of September, nearly 1,400 people had lost their lives, of which 499 children. In addition, floods have washed away 65% of Pakistan’s main food crops, and 3 million livestock have disappeared. 1,4 million hectares of cropland are flooded in the most affected areas of Sindh and Balochistan Provinces, and an estimated 750 000 livestock have been killed. The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimated in early September that 6.4 million people  were in direct need of assistance. It further estimated that some 900 health facilities had been affected and warned of outbreaks of diarrhoeal diseases, skin infections, respiratory tract infections, malaria, and dengue virus. By mid-September these outbreaks were manifesting themselves: the World Food Programme reported 134,000 cases of diarrhoea and 44,000 cases of malaria in Sindh province. The WHO has delivered mobile medical camps to affected districts, has delivered more than 1.7 million water purification tablets, and has provided test kits to detect the emergence of infectious diseases.

International relief efforts have been pouring in and are being coordinated by the National and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities and the Pakistan Humanitarian Forum. To date the World Bank has announced US $ 350 million in support, the World Food Programme has offered $ 110 million, The U.S. government has committed $ 33 million, the UK has committed $ 46.6 million, the Asian Development Bank has committed $ 20 million, the Disasters Emergency Committee has raised US $ 15,8 million, Islamic Relief has raised US $ 7,5 million, and Japan has contributed $ 7 million.

The economic impact of the floods is expected to be significant: a report by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development points out that Sindh province accounts for 42% of national rice production, 23% of cotton production, and 31% of sugarcane production. Beyond direct economic losses there are major losses to agricultural equipment, rural infrastructure, and the costs of draining and rehabilitating agricultural land.                    

Around 3.000 Spanish farmers from three different provinces have taken to the streets of Leon, a town in north-western Spain, demanding that the Spanish government stop sending water across the border to Portugal as per the treaty signed by the two countries in 1998. Spanish farmers accuse the country’s central government of turning their backs on rural areas amid the drought, while Spanish officials have pointed out that releasing the water is in accordance with the 1998 Albufeira Convention. The Albufeira Convention was signed in 1998, regulating the protection and sustainable management of the waters of five transboundary river basins shared by Spain and Portugal.  

According to the Convention’s stipulations, and in order for Spain to meet its annual quota, two of the country’s largest  hydrographic basins, Almendra and Ricobayo, would now need to release half of their current water reserves. Spain is under obligation to transfer 87,000 m³ of water to Portugal by the end of the hydrological year (defined as the 30th of September). With both countries currently experiencing severe drought, Spain currently needs to release a relatively high volume of water in order to meet its obligations.

This is caused by an uneven distribution of water flow throughout the year, made worse by the drought and high temperatures that have severely affected both countries. Spanish farmers claim that the water currently filling these basins was saved by them and are protesting the large quantities that have been released across the border.

Authorities in Madrid have stated that, despite current difficulties, Spain will do its best to meet its obligations with Portugal. However, the amount of water being released to Portugal is now being reduced and the Spanish government is now entertaining the possibility that the country might not be able to meet the agreed quota this year.

Officials from both countries have been meeting to try to reach an understanding on how much water should enter Portuguese borders to try to respect the Albufeira Treaty rules. However, Spanish farmers claim that the 24-year-old agreement needs to be revised as it does not reflect the current weather conditions of the region.

A new study published by Water Research has found that deforestation caused by climate change can have a negative impact on water quality in reservoirs. A team of researchers from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) conducted a study on the Rappbode reservoir in the Harz region of Germany and found that the indirect consequences of climate change on water quality are being seriously underestimated.

The Rappbode reservoir is Germany’s largest and serves one million people. Periods of drought from 2015 to 2020 have weakened surrounding trees and made them more vulnerable to disease and plagues, reducing the tree population by 50%.Prof. Michael Rode, one of the authors and a UFZ hydrologist, said: “This massive forest dieback is advancing rapidly and is dramatic. This will have consequences for the drinking water reservoir." 

Forests, the study found, filter water and bind nutrients. This facilitates water treatment processes, as it diminishes the amount of algae in the reservoir’s waters. By retaining elements like nitrogen or phosphorous, waters leave less available nutrients for algae to flourish.The research found that an anticipated deforestation of 80% will result in an 85% increase in phosphorus and a 120% increase in nitrogen in the dam. As a result, there would be a 80% increase in diatoms (micro algae) and a 200% increase in green algae.

Prof. Rode stated: “Nutrient input to reservoir catchment areas should be reduced even more than previously, reforestation projects with drought-resistant tree species should be further promoted and waterworks should be adapted to the impending developments with selective water removal strategies.”

Dr. Xiangzhen Kong, the study’s main author, stated: “Forest dieback as an indirect consequence of climate change has a more pronounced effect on reservoir water quality than direct effects of climate change such as elevated water temperature. We were actually surprised by the extent of this effect.”

In a briefing released on the 16th of September, OXFAM published the results of a study of recent changes in food security in ten of the world’s regions most vulnerable to climate change. The study analysed changes in the number of people experiencing hunger as a result of weather extremes between 2016 and 2021. It found that acute hunger had more than doubled in those countries from 21 million to 48 million people, of which 18 million people are currently on the brink of starvation. The countries included in the study are Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Guatemala, Haiti, Kenya, Madagascar, Niger, Somalia and Zimbabwe. The authors recognise that hunger is a multidimensional problem, in which conflict, economic disruptions and the Covid-19 pandemic are key drivers.   Nevertheless, the study selected countries for which the United Nations had issued emergency appeals due to extreme weather conditions to draw conclusions on correlations between extreme weather and hunger.  Climate change is causing more frequent and intense droughts, floods, heatwaves and other extreme weather events, which in turn are undermining food security. According to Oxfam, climate change undermined food security through four key drivers: firstly, by placing stress on agricultural production, reducing yields and productivity. Secondly, climate change reduces accessibility of food through increased prices, forced migration, and reduced resilience to shocks. Thirdly, climate change may reduce the quality of food consumed, affecting nutrition. Lastly, climate change increases the instability of food supply, interrupting continuity of supply. Taken together, on the basis of the existing trends OXFAM indicated that based on these factors the number of people affected by weather related disasters may be expected to increase by 40% from 400 a year in 2015 to 560 in 2030. The methodology of the OXFAM study relied on the frequency of UN appeals related to weather extremes to identify the top ten most vulnerable countries. Although this indicator is a somewhat indirect measurement of actual food insecurity, it was cross referenced with many key publications such as the Global Reports on Food Crises .  

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has released a statement warning that, by 2030, as many as 700 million Africans will be displaced due to water scarcity issues. By then, only 1 in 5 countries will have sustainably managed water sources. With changing precipitation patterns and shrinking water reserves such as lakes and glaciers, combined with a growing need for water, WMO says that there is also a growing risk of water-related conflict.

WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas said: ““The worsening crisis and looming famine in the drought-stricken Horn of Africa shows how climate change can exacerbate water shocks, threatening the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and destabilising communities, countries and entire regions.”

Taalas also added that, even though the continent contributes less than 5% of the world’s greenhouse gases, “Africa’s climate has warmed more than the global average since pre-industrial times (1850-1900). In parallel, the sea level rise along African coastlines is faster than the global mean, contributing to increases in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding and erosion, and salinity in low-lying cities. Changes in continental water bodies have major impacts on the agriculture sector, ecosystems, biodiversity.”

The WMO’s State of the Climate in Africa report, released in 2021, stressed that water-related events such as droughts, floods and rising sea levels seriously compromise the continent’s ability to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The WMO also warns that further investment is needed in adaptation to the changing climate. Moreover, the UN’s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water stressed the need to strengthen early warning systems, increase transboundary cooperation, data exchange and knowledge sharing.

A new report by Finnish scientists Laura Raikkonen and Elina A. Virtanen argues that, despite claims that shallow-water mining is a sustainable way to meet increasing demand for metals, environmental impacts can be high, while adequate protective  legislation is still not in place.

The scarcity of certain minerals in terrestrial sources as well as the high high costs of deep-sea mining have been driving a change of focus towards shallow-water mining (mining in waters up to 200m deep), as some seabed deposits can have high concentrations of metals.

However, according to the article published by the journal Trends in Ecology and Evolution, the mining process in coastal areas, may have significant and negative impacts on the ecology of the continental shelves. Shallow water mining, the authors argue, exerts additional pressures on vulnerable coastal ecosystems which are already affected by the cumulative impacts of human activities and the effects of climate change.

The shallow water mining process, which consists of dredging the seafloor and sifting through up to 2.500 m³ of sediment per hour, may end up changing the ecological equilibrium of the sea floor.

“Mineral extraction removes the sediment, resident sea floor organisms, and ultimately the habitat, potentially resulting in local extinctions and changes in species composition.” Raikkonen and Virtanen state in the study. “In addition to altering seabed morphology, mineral extraction results in degradation of water quality through sediment plumes that increase water turbidity and smother organisms. There is also potential release of harmful substances from the sediment and disturbance to marine organisms via noise, light, and vibration from the operations.”

The article calls for a moratorium on these mining practices until these impacts are properly assessed and claims that shallow-water mining, due to its impacts, is in stark contrast with UN’s Sustainable Development Goals as it may have an impact on ocean life from which it may take decades to recover.

GHD, a global professional (engineering and architecture) services company specialising in water, energy and urbanisation, has released a study in September claiming that, by 2050, droughts, floods and storms can have a negative impact on 8 key countries’ GDP of up to US$ 5.6 trillion. Noting the rise in global economic losses from extreme weather from US $ 117,8 billion in 2020 to US $ 224 billion in 2021, GHD conducted water risk analysis across seven countries to estimate future losses in these countries by 2050. The study, entitled “Aquanomics: The economics of water risk and future resilience”, found that the manufacturing and distribution sector would be the worst affected, with projected losses of US$ 5.2 trillion. 

The researchers first estimated direct losses based on data from the insurance sector. Secondly, a literature review was conducted on the sectoral economic impacts from extreme weather on different sectors in the selected countries such as agriculture, banking and insurance, energy and utilities and manufacturing and distribution. Finally, this data was inserted into an economic model to predict the broader impact of these losses to the economy. The impact assessment focused on the United States, China, Australia, UK, Philippines, Canada and the United Arab Emirates. In the U.S. alone, the report estimates, losses could be in the region of US$ 3.7 trillion and in China, despite the country’s heavy investment in water infrastructure, they could be as much as US$ 1.1 trillion. 

While China’s investments may be preparing the country to minimise the loss of lives, more could be done to build resilience in the economy, with measures such as generalising the use of recycled water in the industry, the study finds.

In the UK, for instance, its long coastline and ageing infrastructure makes the country more vulnerable to the impacts of water-related phenomena and the rehabilitation and replacement of water infrastructure could help minimise negative impacts.

Despite the diversity of situations countries are in, which would require bespoke measures for each, the report points out three main areas of intervention to help mitigate these effects. The first key aspect is “adaptation”, companies’ ability to adjust to an uncertain future by making short- and medium-term investments and adjusting their structures to better deal with change. The second is “optimisation”: putting technology and data-driven insights at the service of improving resilience and performance. Lastly, through the notion of “prioritisation of regeneration”, GHD advises companies to adopt nature-based solutions, recycling and transitioning to a circular economy.

Water.org, a global non-profit organization whose mission is to bring safe, accessible and cost-effective water and sanitation to the world”, has announced a US$ 1bn plan to improve the resilience of water services around the world. To achieve this, a dedicated Water and Climate Fund was launched at the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) conference in New York, which aims to to help 100 million people in Africa, Asia and Latin America. The CGI is a programme designed by the Clinton Foundation, established by former U.S. president Bill Clinton, to help solve some of the world’s most pressing problems. The idea behind the initiative to create a billion-dollar investment portfolio to help under-served communities build and improve water infrastructure and then use wealth generated by these improvements to further fund the programme. Amazon partnered with Water.org to create this fund and announced the donation of US$10 million to provide 3 billion litres of water per year to 1 million people by 2025. This investment will kick start the Water and Climate Fund and support climate-resilient water and sanitation projects.

In a press release, Amazon stated: “People living in poverty are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because they often lack access to reliable water and sanitation systems. They also have limited access to funding that can help them adapt to growing droughts, declining water quality, and shifting precipitation patterns. Water.org is working to change this.”

The fund was unveiled by actor Matt Damon, co-founder of Water.org. He said: ““Water action is climate action. We must focus on global water security by putting the water and sanitation needs of the most vulnerable front and centre through our climate discussions and most importantly, our philanthropy.”

Starting on the 12th of September, in response to the ongoing drought, the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources started discharging an additional 1.8 billion cubic metres of water from the main reservoirs in the river. This follows a similar release of 3.6 billion cubic metres in mid-August. Despite the gradual lowering of temperatures in China after the hottest and driest summer since records began, water levels in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) have continued to drop during September.

In the August issue of The Water Diplomat, we reported that water in the drainage area of the Yangtze had dropped to 60% below average levels for August. The low water levels had affected hydropower production, and factories, including major vehicle assembly plants, were shut down to save power in Sichuan province, which is 80% dependent on hydropower.  Poyang Lake, China’s largest freshwater lake, dropped to its lowest levels since records began by late September, measuring 7.1 metres in depth at one monitoring point as compared to 19.43 metres in June. As a result, the central Chinese province of Jiangxi announced a water supply red alert: Jiangxi province had experienced 60% less rain than the average since July, and the water inflow from rivers has similarly been 60% less than usual.     

The water releases from the upper Yangtze will strengthen China’s food security, as the YRB accounts for about 50% of the country’s grain production and for some two thirds of China rice production. In August, subsidy packages had been announced by the State Council to compensate for production losses amongst rice farmers.  September is a critical period for rice production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze, and the release of water from the upper river will help to maintain the flow of water for irrigation across a total of 1.9 million hectares of agricultural land.

The worst drought Morocco has seen in 30 years has brought reservoir levels down to an average of 25%, as compared to 40% this time last year. The Kingdom’s Ministry of Water and Logistics, which had declared in July that the country was in a “state of water emergency”, announced that currently a mere only four billion m³ of water were available as against a maximum capacity of 16 billion m³. 

Recent data shows that while the Alwahda dam, the country’s largest, is at 43.5% capacity (comparing with 63.6% last year), others like Al Massira, the second largest, have much lower levels with Asl Massira dam itself currently at 3.3% capacity (compared to 9,8% last year). These alarming figures for the country’s 62 dams are caused by historically low rainfall during the last year. This, in addition to particularly high temperatures has also caused a series of wildfires in Morocco recently.

The lack of water has hit the agricultural sector particularly hard with yield going down as the government imposes water rationing. Mr. Nizar Baraka, Morocco’s Minister of Equipment and Water, stated: “Water today has become scarce, and every drop is very important. Thus, responsible and rational consumption of water has become a citizen's act and a sign of national solidarity.”

Car wash establishments are being closed throughout the countries as the use of potable water for this kind of activity has been forbidden since early August. Morocco has been struggling with drought and scorching heat with even the Moroccan Court of Accounts having weighed in acknowledging the economic impact of water scarcity and demanding immediate action.

As the hot, dry summer grows longer, Jordan’s main dams are now at levels below 15% and officials fear the consequences if the wet season is further delayed. Omar Salameh, a spokesperson for the Water Ministry of Jordan, said in a statement to Arab News: “This is unprecedented. Never in the history of Jordan has such a percentage been recorded.” The government official attributed the water scarcity crisis not just to a very long, hot and dry Summer and an overall very dry last two years, but also to high water consumption both in households and for irrigation.

According to Salameh, the country’s water reserves now sit at 43 million cubic metres. The combined capacity of Jordan’s 14 major dams is 336.4 million cubic meters. Under an existing agreement, Jordan had requested 30 million cubic metres of water from Syria but the request was refused by Syrian authorities which invoked their own irrigation needs and the instability in their southern territory.

The two countries signed the Yarmouk Water Agreement in 1987 under which the Al-Wehda dam would be built on the country’s border with Syria getting 75% of the generated electricity and Jordan getting full control over the water. However, Jordan has been accusing Syria of building reservoirs and implementing large agricultural projects which have been using up most of the water.

The Aqaba-Amman Water Desalination and Conveyance National Project, which promised to grant the country water stability until 2040, was announced in 2020, but the Jordanian government is still trying to secure funding to implement the project.

In Mexico’s Oaxaca valley, a region that has been hit by drought, local indigenous communities have come together to construct 579 different types of water infrastructure to tackle the problem of water scarcity. The construction of wells, water pans and dams has greatly increased access to water in the region despite the lack of rain. The Mexican government, acknowledging the actions of these 16 indigenous communities, has promised to grant them a concession to manage the waters locally.

In collaboration with local municipalities, the Mexican Institute of Technology and the National Institute of Indigenous People, the communities have developed infrastructure to maximise rainwater harvesting as well as to improve efficiency in irrigation systems. The valley also features a local industry that consumes 60 billion litres of water per year, i.e., the Gugar beverage company. The local community of San Bartolo Coyotepec is of the opinion that the company is overexploiting water resources and has demanded Gugar to be expelled from their territory. Of the six plants owned by the company, only three report water consumption and locals accuse Gugar of being responsible for the water scarcity in the region.

There has been a longstanding conflict between the people of Coyotepec and Gugar. The company was taken to court for illegally occupying community land. Although the judgement ruled that Gugar should vacate the lands, the local community was ordered to pay US$ 5 million compensation, which they have refused to do. Despite the water scarcity in the region, the National Water Commission (Conagua) has authorised industries in the Oaxaca valley to extract 60 billion litres of water per year from local sources.

Horacio Sosa Villavicencio, a local MP, said: “It is undoubtedly impressive, the amount of cubic metres that have been conceded to this company. On the other hand, the amount of water that San Bartolo Coyotepec has to attend to the community’s most pressing needs is laughable.”

Water hyacinth, an invasive plant species, is clogging the Athi river in Kenya and endangering the river's environment as well as local investments.The entire water channel is covered with water hyacinth, an aquatic weed, creating dense vegetation. According to farmers, the weed has not substantially impacted agriculture in the region, except for the blocking of water intakes. However, it has hindered fishing, a crucial economic activity for the region.

Peter Kilonzi, a local fisherman, stated, "To catch fish, we are obliged to travel many kilometers downstream, where the density of the floating vegetation is low."Kiaoni, a thriving riverside commercial hub, is hardest afflicted by the water hyacinth scourge. Since August, the cost of fish on the market has tripled. This is according to Mutua, a resident in Machakos County. However, many fishmongers in the shopping centre have shut down due to declining revenues.

Native to South America, the invasive plant has been rapidly spreading around the globe. Local communities have learned to survive with the invasive plant around Lake Victoria, where it has blocked the beaches. They "harvest" the weed and convert it into biofuels and fertilizers. However, in Machakos County, the weed remains peculiar. Administrators in the afflicted regions have intensified their efforts to discourage river swimming, lest swimmers become entangled in the invasive plant.

"We are accustomed to seeing little spots of water hyacinth that are readily washed away by rain. This year, though, the floating weed has reached proportions never before seen. It poses a threat to public safety, said Kabaa Assistant Chief Rosina Munyao. Professor Gideon Nyamasyo, a former environmental studies lecturer at the University of Nairobi who has studied the invasion of water hyacinth in other water bodies, asserts that the invasive species is an indicator of river contamination, supports millions of livelihoods in the semi-arid Ukambani and beyond.

"Water hyacinth flourishes in aquatic environments that are contaminated. "The concentration of the weed in a portion of a river indicates that farmers in the vicinity use a great deal of fertilizer, which washes into the river when it rains," he said in an interview. However, he minimized the effects of the plant on the river's environment."The weed is useful as a bio cleanser for bodies of water. Water hyacinth is noted for its ability to remove heavy metals from bodies of water such as rivers. "When exposed to clean water, water hyacinth quickly dies and is washed away," he continued.

The invasion of water hyacinths has reinvigorated local efforts to clean the River Athi. Wavinya Ndeti, the governor of Machakos, has committed to take the initiative in cleaning up the permanent river that begins in Kiambu County and whose tributaries include the Nairobi River.

She recently stated, "We have already begun discussions with the national government and Kajiado, Kiambu, and Nairobi County governments, jointly responsible for discharging effluents into River Athi, in order to reverse the trend and clean up the vital river. "Scientists have demonstrated that the river is polluted with harmful chemicals and heavy metals released by industry.

Former President Uhuru Kenyatta, during his reign, pledged the government's commitment to cleaning up the river after the Auditor General, environmentalists, local leaders, and riparian communities raised concerns about its contamination, something the locals are hoping the current government in power will take it up.